3 Reasons: Why Anwar's Freedom Is More Important to BN Now Than His Guilt

       Anwar's freedom would have been more politically advantageous to Barisan Nasional. Imprisoning him would do BN no favours, and instead put them into an unwanted minefield. Perhaps the Court of Appeal is independent. Perhaps BN actually wanted Anwar to remain a free man. Perhaps my reasons below are sensible. Read on.

[1]    If I were PM Najib Razak, I would have orchestrated Anwar's case - as alleged by Anwar himself. But I would't use it to ensure that Anwar is sent to jail. Instead, I'd have used it to ensure that the judiciary upholds his freedom. 

[2]        Why? Because BN had more to gain from Anwar being a  free man.

Reason 1 1: Chew Mei Fun had a chance

[3]         Firstly, the Kajang move is so unpopular (though not according to Rafizi) that Chew Mei Fun actually looked like she had a chance! 

[4]         Having read a few of her interviews and bio, I kind of like her. The winning potential is there: she's a well-respected and principled politician, experienced, Chinese (like the incumbent), from the new MCA team, and is already on-the-ground trying to win hearts and minds.

[5]         She's a safe candidate to put up and BN was going less spectacular, more pragmatic. I'm sure Anwar was worried - there was deafening silence from PR about her, because there was nothing to attack her with!

[6]         Unfortunately, now she'll be tainted with the same brush as everyone affiliated to BN.

Reason 2: PKR's internal feud was just getting started

[7]         Everyone knows that the Kajang move wasn't really for PKR's or PR's best interest. It was done mainly to enable Anwar to placate the feud between his golden boy Azmin Ali and Selangor MB Khalid Ibrahim which had long persisted and recently become more public and ugly.

[8]         The public dismissal of Azmin fromPKNS, the signing of that water deal between MB Khalid and BN without informingAnwar, and most recently MB Khalid's announcement that he'll challenge Azmin for PKR's deputy president's post in April/May not only gave BN vital breathing room and leverage, but was a political nightmare for PKR as no end was in sight.

[9]         And while it appeared cunning to position it as PKR's launching pad to Putrajaya, it only served to emphasize the narrative of Anwar's desperation for power, Rafizi's over-eagerness to please, and a dangerous factionalism in PKR threatening to split the party and weaken the PR coalition. It raised many questions but left even more unanswered (read my previous article about "Why Anwar?: 3 Missing Points from Rafizi's Explanation")

Reason 3: Anwar becoming MB was no certainty

[10]     The last vital piece to all this is the Anwar-becoming-MB storyline.

[11]     With MB Khalid extremely popular in Selangor and having shown his competence in dealing with state finances (RM2+ billion in cash reserves!) and his shrewdness with businessmen, civil servants and Putrajaya (he actually got PM to sign the water deal), Anwar's rise to the top would not have been a shoo-in by any means.

[12]     MB Khalid appeared keen to retain his seat and was prepared to put up a fight (let's not forget his influence amongst the Assemblymen in the state is strong). And he told the Sultan of Selangor he had no intention of resigning (here).

[13]     Azmin was kind of sort of still waiting in the wings hoping for something.

[14]     Someone else was keen (reportedly Rafizi, maybe even Tony).

[15]     And there were murmurs that PAS may have made a go at it (they do have more seats in Selangor than PR anyway).

[16]     All this and Anwar had yet to win the Kajang seat!

[17]     And oh, just one more big matter: the Sultan of Selangor.

[18]     There have been reports that the Sultan wasn't keen on Anwar for various reasons – his previous conviction, reputation, etc. It was also reported that he likes MB Khalid. This was evidenced by his support for MB Khalid and not Azmin Ali after GE13. While still too early to tell with certainty, this storyline had a looong way to go.

Conclusion

[19]     Based on the foregoing reasons, BN would have been better served with Anwar remaining a free man.

[20]     Heck, if the Court of Appeal had acquitted Anwar, that would have been icing on the cake! A free and independent judiciary! – who’d have thought it’d happen AGAIN after 2012.

[21]     Anwar’s conviction is not only bad for BN, but it’s clearly undesirable at this point in time (and arguably, at any point in the future).